Point: When forecasting, keep in mind that simple signs can have a deeper meaning if you take the time to look.

Story: At the Cultivating Intuition: Effective Forecasting in the Face of Rapid Change workshop preceding the World Innovation Forum, forecaster Paul Saffo described how to watch for signs of the future. In 1991, as he and his newlywed bride were driving to Mendocino County for their honeymoon, he saw a new road sign that was so intriguing that he turned around, drove back, and took a photograph of it while his exasperated bride waited. The sign simply said, “End Emergency Call Boxes.” But the sign told Saffo of both the near-term future and the long-term future. First, the literal interpretation of the sign told Saffo that he and his wife were on their own. If they had any problems, they couldn’t expect to quickly reach the authorities for help. Yet fear of being incommunicado was not why Saffo stopped at the sign.

Second, and more crucially, the sign indicated to Saffo that people’s expectations had changed. Why would the California Highway Department think that such as sign was needed? Prior to the 1990s, no one expected to be in constant communication. But now, the advent of the solar-powered call boxes meant that people expected more.

The sign was part of a series of long-term changes in communications. Only a couple of years later, the sign was gone because the call boxes extended all the way to the Canadian border. Low-cost communications enabled almost-universal coverage. About a decade later, the call boxes themselves were gone, because everyone had cell phones. Yet that sign triggered Saffo’s thinking about communications and how changing technology led to changing expectations and future changes in technology.

Action

• Look at signs and signals in the environment. (Paul recommends carrying a camera at all times to snap pictures of these signs)
• Examine the deeper meaning of those signs — what do the signs say about the changing expectations of consumers and citizens?
• Consider how your future products and services can meet those changing expectations

Tags: forecasting, Innovation, Paul Saffo, World Innovation Forum